Author: Samantha Li and Jason Li
Topic: Population Decline in East Asia
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, by the turn of 2024, the U.S. population is projected to grow to just over 335 million people, with the global population projected to reach eight billion. Speaking more categorically, global births and deaths are expected to be 4.3 and 2.0 every second, respectively.
Figure 1 illustrates a more comprehensive composition and forecast of the world population, grouped by region, over 150 years. A few points can be extrapolated from Figure 1: first, the Europe, North America, Latin America, and Oceania regions are projected to have relatively stable, consistent population growth. Second, the African region is expected to see the largest population growth over the next 80 years. Lastly, and the most alarming, is the Asia region, which is projected to make up roughly half the global population by the next 20 years, yet drastically decline in the 50 years following that.
Fear and intense discussion arise from these projected trends, specifically on how major changes in a population can be related to economic volatility, climate disasters, drastic demographic shifts, and more. Hence, the population crisis poses two problems: overpopulation and underpopulation. Overpopulation, according to Merriam-Webster, is “the condition of having a population so dense as to cause environmental deterioration, an impaired quality of life, or a population crash.” In particular, overpopulation has been closely associated with resource scarcity, accelerating climate change, and economic strains. That being said, the focus of this article will be on the other side–underpopulation, specifically relating to the rate of population decline found within certain East Asian countries.
First, there needs to be a critical distinction made between underpopulation and population decline. Underpopulation is defined as when a population is below a certain threshold, in which they are not fully utilizing their local resources and productivity. On the other hand, population decline is focused on the rate at which a population is falling. When the population falls too fast, there have been drastic and dire socioeconomic effects on the national and global levels.
Most European countries, as well as Australia and New Zealand, are currently underpopulated yet not in a population crisis, due to a relatively stable, stagnant population curve. In contrast to East Asia, however, we find a batch of countries that are each experiencing a population crisis–each similar but unique in its own right. These countries are Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and China. From our analysis of each country, we hope to understand the forces causing these population crises, identify the effects they have on society, and put forward meaningful resolutions.
Although overpopulation is seen as a global issue, the triggers of population decline and a population crisis are generally considered within a national scope, particularly in East Asian countries. China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea are all seeing a declining population. China’s birth and death rates in 2023 were a record-low 6.39 births per 1,000 people and a death rate of 7.87 deaths per 1,000 people, the highest since 1974. For Taiwan, the birth rate was 5.82 births per 1,000 people, and the death rate was 7.90 deaths per 1,000 people. Japan’s birth and death rates were 5.8 births per 1,000 people and a staggering death rate of 12.7 deaths per 1,000 people. And in South Korea, their birth rate was a record-low 0.72 births, and the death rate was 6.9 deaths per 1,000 people. For context, the global birth rate in 2023 was 17.4 births per 1,000 people, while the death rate was 8.1 deaths per 1,000 people.
With these concerning statistics, there are many factors that are involved in triggering this crisis. These include educational competition and devaluation, the cost of living, work-life conditions, social gender dynamics, and more. With all these contributing factors, they produce multifaceted and complex effects that are intertwined with one another.
China and Higher Education
One trigger for a declining population comes from intense competition within higher education, which then inhibits the job market. A country that illustrates this competition is China. Local residents view higher education as the key to a brighter future. Getting into higher education has become the norm for almost everyone. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Education of China, in 2022, the number of applicants for master’s degrees will reach 4.57 million, a new record with an increased rate of 21.3%. Employers now have an increased demand for higher educational credentials, leading to escalating academic competitiveness. However, the rapid increase of college graduates with a bachelor’s, master’s, or PHD has led to the devaluation of academic qualifications within the job market. This sort of situation produces a vicious cycle between academics and the job market, where residents try to invest more in their academics to be more qualified in the workforce. In 2023, the number of university graduates postponing entering the workforce surged from 15.9% to 38% in 2015. Another survey from the National Bureau of Statistics in 2023 shows that 84% out of 4,000 university graduates in China cited pursuing further studies as a reason to delay getting a job. This implies that many future employment opportunities will not be able to accommodate newcomers in securing employment after graduation. Compared to the United States youth unemployment rate of 9.8% in July 2024, China’s youth unemployment rate peaked at a record 21.3% in June 2023, according to the Wall Street Journal. This reflects the delay of joining the workforce and the continuous devaluation of academics. Between this unsustainable employment rate, the cycle of academics, and the job market, the situation doesn’t align with many people’s aspirations or financial needs when it comes to finding the job they prefer, resulting in a delay in marriage and starting a family.
Japan and the Workplace
Japan is particularly egregious regarding workplace conditions and company culture. The standard workweek spans five to six days, yet it is common for employees to surpass the legal limit of 8 hours per day to work 50-60 hours per week. Japanese employers also offer the least annual vacation time among G7 countries, with a minimum of 5 paid days off per year. While the US does not have a legal minimum, US employers provide an average of 10 paid days off per year.
Japan has also built a reputation for a culture that prioritizes dedication to work and loyalty to your respective company. This culture is highlighted by two popular terms: shuushin koyou, “lifetime employment”, and karoshi, “death by overwork.” While the practice of lifetime employment has fallen drastically since the 1990s, 20-30% of employees in Japan are still working under a lifetime employment commitment (where they are expected to remain with the company until retirement, 65, and a minimum of 25 years of service), primarily for large corporations. Non-regular employment, such as contract and part-time work, now makes up approximately 37% of Japan’s workforce. This reflects both cost-cutting measures by employers and changing employee preferences for flexibility.
The phenomenon of karoshi has highlighted the extreme consequences of Japanese loyalty. A 2022 government survey from the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare found that around one in 10 Japanese workers put in more than 80 hours of overtime per month, with one in five at risk of karoshi – whether through stroke, heart attack, or stress-induced suicide. The last major legislative reform against karoshi was in 2018, when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe presented the “Work Style Reform” bill, forcing employers to “compel employees to take holidays” and introducing a cap of 80 hours a month in overtime. That averages to a 60-hour work week, including overtime, and 12 hours a day if split evenly across five days.
As seen in Figure 2, this workplace culture and ineffective legislative response have tangible effects on the Japanese population. According to a 2023 Gallup report, only 6% of Japanese workers reported that they were engaged at work, meaning they are involved in and enthusiastic about their workplace. Japan’s engagement rate has fluctuated around 4-8% since 2009, contrasted with a global average of 23%.
Taiwan and Household Income
Likewise, for those who are financially strapped when it comes to affording a family, it generally applies to the initial housing crisis, particularly in Taiwan. According to The Diplomat, Taiwan’s house-price to income ratio is 9.82, equivalent to the average house cost for 10 years of average household income. As a result of this, its household prices are among the highest among developed countries. Low wages are a significant factor in the unaffordability of housing.
Coming from Figure 3 above, Taiwan’s housing prices are as high as those of countries like Norway, the Netherlands, and Finland. However, due to higher wages in European countries, they have lower housing costs due to the mortgage burden, which brings about 20% of the household’s disposable income. According to the UN (United Nations), the mortgage burden needs to be below 30% for housing to be considered affordable. Yet Taiwan’s mortgage burden makes up 38.35% of disposable income. As a result, it’s not only housing prices that have skyrocketed, but also debt. This situation creates a domino effect that negatively impacts birth rates because unaffordable housing results in a decline in marriage rates and a high cost of raising children.
South Korea and Gender Dynamics
Even though East Asian countries are considered to be patriarchal, the social environment within these countries doesn’t help in reversing the population crisis, specifically in South Korea’s case. According to The Economist, South Korea is facing a crucial gender war between incel and feminism based on the changing social and economic norms for women. This mainly includes women’s lives having overall improved independently because of higher college enrollment than men and outperforming men in the workforce. As a result, this challenges men’s inferiority even though the country still has one of the biggest gender pay gaps (women earn 31% less than men). Furthermore, feminism in South Korea has seen a drastic rise with the involvement of the 4b movement, where women are in protest by abstaining from dating men and from sexual intimacy with men. With this situation, South Korea’s dating market has become a competitive sport rather than a social network. This may negatively impact future marriage rates and is a major reason for one of the lowest birth rates in East Asia at 0.72. In particular, a survey by a dating app emphasized that of divorced singles, where 37% of Korean women said a “patriarchal” man would be their least favorite date, and a similar share of men said they didn’t want to date feminists. At this rate, men becoming more conservative and women becoming more liberal creates a conflicting clash between feminism and anti-feminism.
The Aftermath of a Declining Population
Based on Japan’s situation from CNBC, the main effects of a declining population involve an increase in the elderly population, which will cause a long-term labor shortage. This is an initial warning of a population crisis that would desolate economic stability and lead to an economic crisis due to a lack of human capital and employment. Furthermore, when it comes to Taiwan’s current situation, according to The Guardian, the aftermath may also lead to schools and child care centers being closed and abandoned due to low birth rates. Those who specialize in management in schools, or child education, may lose employment. Moreover, this may also produce a national security issue for countries like Taiwan and South Korea, affecting military participation in the long run.
Enacting Counter Policies
Although it seems that the declining population is an inevitable crisis, there are some policies that these East Asian countries have introduced to mitigate and reverse the population crisis. The Japanese government provides subsidies for low-income families that may facilitate marriage, helping newlyweds pay for childbearing care and providing education for children. One of the biggest policies that Japan implemented was the Angel plan, which was passed in 1994. Its aim was the expansion of child care centers and partial payment of salary for child care leave. To further their goal, the government took additional measures to provide an environment