Siddharth Yerapotini – Dec. 3, 2024
Golden State Warriors
Last season, the Warriors finished as the 10th seed in the Western Conference, in what was an ugly season filled with constant heartbreak, choked leads, no consistent lineups, and player frustration. In the following offseason, they lost Warrior legend Klay Thompson, a move that truly cemented the end of their dynasty and winning ways…or did it?
Despite their current slump, the Warriors have had an overwhelmingly positive start to the season and have emerged as one of the surprises of the year. Even after the slump, the Dubs are seventh in Offensive Rating, fourth in Defensive Rating, and fifth in overall Net Rating. That’s a significant improvement from 11th, 14th, and 15th, respectively. Additionally, they became the first team this year to qualify for the NBA Cup knockout stage – a stark contrast from their abysmal collapse in their final group stage game last year, in which they brutally choked a double digit lead against their rival, the Sacramento Kings, losing both the game and any chance of advancing.
Much of this success can be attributed to their deep 12-man rotation that Steve Kerr has masterminded. The Golden State bench is scoring an unbelievable 52.7 points per game – among the best in NBA history – with several players like Jonathan Kuminga, Buddy Hield, and others providing valuable boosts. The Dubs have also been moving the ball well, logging an incredible 30 assists per game, with 70.2% of their points coming off of assists. Their defense has been formidable as well, as they are consistently among the top in all major defensive stats like steals, blocks, turnovers, and points off turnovers. Their ability to consistently pressure opposing teams into losing the ball and unload low-percentage shots (enabled in large part due to their 12-man rotation that keeps every player fresh) has transformed outcomes and led to many dominant stretches for the team.
However, despite these positive stats, the Warriors have some significant weaknesses that put into question the validity of their hot start to the season. They shoot an abysmal 69% from the free throw line, and have lost games due to free throw shooting alone. They have also shown remnants of last year’s team in their late-game meltdowns, as they have had recently with mediocre teams in the San Antonio Spurs and Brooklyn Nets. The Dubs also have a clear second star also has not developed yet in Andrew Wiggins, which is something every title contender needs. There’s a good chance Wiggins may emerge as this strong number two, but his lack of consistency puts this into question. Another clear issue lies in the Warriors’ complete lack of size – a move for a 6’11” or taller big man seems imminent.
If the Warriors can resolve these issues, who knows? Maybe we will see the revival of a fallen dynasty! They did it once in their magical 2022 championship run – can they dig deep to find their championship DNA once more?
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs are the team that has caught everyone’s attention in this early part of the season. After a late-season struggle last year followed by a loss in a gentleman’s sweep to the Boston Celtics in the playoffs, the Cavaliers looked lost – every year, they were good enough to make the playoffs, but never positioned to make any real progress. Team chemistry between All-Star guards Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell was put into question, and the Cavs sought to rebound coming into this season.
And rebound they did. They had a historic start to the year, setting a new franchise record with a staggering 17-1 record, picking up wins at the rate of the legendary Warriors’ dynasty. They have an incredible offensive rating of 122.8 (1st in the NBA), top 10 defense, and the number one net rating at a dominant +11.8. They boast an extremely balanced attack, with several role players being able to catch fire at any moment and put the game away, such as when guard Ty Jerome scored a staggering 27 first-half points. Their ball movement and playmaking also stand out, throwing defenses off nearly every possession and demonstrating an ability to get quality shots in almost any situation against any coverage. If the Cavaliers can stay healthy and maintain this level of dominance, for the first time in this iteration of their franchise, they could be serious championship contenders. Given the state of their franchise following Lebron James’ departure in 2018 – falling to last place in the Eastern Conference – this is a remarkable turnaround that would surely rank among the quickest rebuilds in the history of the NBA. That being said, they have little positive playoff experience, so it remains to be seen if their potential regular season success can translate to playoff wins.
Houston Rockets
Last season, the Rockets finished a disappointing 11th seed in a tough Western Conference. They were a young team that made significant improvement over their previous season, in which they were tied for the worst record in the West. Despite this, expectations were not high for them this year – they surely were not expected to be near the top of the standings, with so many contenders in their conference. ● Surprisingly, they have surpassed all expectations, and now currently stand an incredible 2nd seed, just 1 game behind the #1 seed in a historically competitive Western Conference! It’s been mainly their defense doing the work, with their 2nd ranked defense propelling them to a 4th ranked net rating. Future outlook is very positive for this young Rockets team, as they have many potential stars such as flashy guard Jalen Green, playmaking big man Alperen Sengun, a developing Jabari Smith Jr., and more. Just like the Cavaliers, the Rockets’ turnaround following James Harden’s controversial departure has been ahead of schedule, albeit not as extreme. It remains to be seen whether they can retain all of their young talent and develop their squad into a championship-worthy team in the coming years!
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies had a tough 2023-2024 season (to say the least). Following two successful regular seasons in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, in both of which they finished as the second seed in the Western Conference, the Grizzlies finished a lowly 13th seed last year. They faced problems from the start with superstar Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension for controversial off-court activity. Then, even after Morant returned, he suffered a labral tear and underwent shoulder surgery, sidelining him for the final 47 games of the season and limiting him to just 9 games played all year. Morant wasn’t the only one, either – the Grizzlies’ injury situation became so bad that they set the unwanted record of the most players used over the course of the season in NBA history, with 33. That’s over two full rosters. They also broke the record for the most different starting lineups, with 51, and another record for the most games lost due to injuries with 578 (total number of games players missed).
The point is, the Grizzlies had severe injury problems last season which some believe will influence their production this season, as they have completely lost their identity as a team and have nearly zero chemistry or knowledge regarding how to play together. As a result, heading into this season, questions arose regarding the Grizzlies’ ability to recoup and return to the brand of basketball that brought them success in years prior.
They have answered all doubts to start this year, as they are currently in the 4th seed of the Western Conference despite Morant missing several games (he is healthy again and has made his return in an NBA Cup win), just two games behind the 1st seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. They are extremely consistent on both sides of the ball, with the 5th best offensive rating and 6th best defensive rating, amounting to the 6th best net rating in the NBA. Their demonstrated strength on both sides of the ball despite their superstar’s injury bodes well for their rest-of-season outlook, as they possess the ability to beat teams through a multitude of ways. With Morant back in the lineup, they aspire to continue their strong form and rebound from their struggles last season, hoping to rebuild their team identity and get prepared to make a deep playoff run.
Competitiveness & Parity throughout the NBA is Exciting!
Every year, the competitiveness across the NBA seems to grow, bringing action-packed games throughout the regular season and gritty battles in the playoffs! This trend seems to have continued this season. As players around the world become increasingly skilled, teams are able to find role-player gems that turn into stars when needed, bringing unexpected results and truly competitive games. Across the NBA, even teams generally regarded as lottery-locks have been competitive – the Pistons, who had a record-breaking 28 consecutive losses last year, already have 9 wins (and are 3-0 in the NBA Cup, leading their group)! Every single team in the Association is clearly capable of beating every other team on any given night, and the standings in both conferences are shuffling around on a daily basis, bringing high stakes and intensity to each and every game.
The NBA has had an unprecedented run of parity in recent years, with 6 different champions consecutively – will that continue this season? With how much talent is around the league this season, it’s very possible!
That wraps up the recap of the NBA’s early season surprises. Will these overachieving teams continue their brilliance, or will reality set in and restore the order NBA fans around the world expected heading into the season? Stay tuned, as it’s all to play for in this ever-competitive state of the NBA!
Reach out with any questions, comments, or concerns at yerapotini@wisc.edu.